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The Future of Employement by Oxford

47% of current jobs would be automated within 20 years. Such was the verdict of a study conducted in 2013 at the very serious Oxford University.

The simulation covered 702 occupations, and the probability calculation ranged from 0.0028 to 0.99 (that is, from negligible to almost certain).

In the list of professions whose disappearance exceeds 94% of probability, there are all kinds of officials, clerks, collectors, operators, hostess, dispatchers, providers, and even cooks, librarians, models and sports arbitrators.

At the top of the list, with a probability of 0.99, there is:

0.99 Insurance Underwriters
0.99 Tax Preparers
0.99 Mathematical Technicians
0.99 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers
0.99 Library Technicians
0.99 Telemarketers
0.99 New Accounts Clerks
0.99 Cargo and Freight Agents
0.99 Data Entry Keyers
0.99 Watch Repairers
0.99 Sewers, Hand
0.99 Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators

Below the % of occupations at risk in each sector. In parentheses, the number of occupations at risk of disappearance and the number of occupations taken into account during the simulation.

61,54 % — Office and Administrative Support (32/52 profesions = 61,54 %)
46,60 % — Production (48/104)
40,00 % — Sales and Related (8/20)
37,50 % — Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance (3/8)
33,33 % — Business and Financial Operations (10/30)
31,25 % — Food Preparation and Serving (5/16)
30,00 % — Personal Care and Services (6/20)
29,16 % — Transportation and Material Moving (14/48)
27,27 % — Farming, Fishing, and Forestry (3/11)
25,00 % — Legal (2/8)
24,00 % — Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (12/50)
16,07 % — Construction and Extraction (9/56)
06,81 % — Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (3/44)
06,66 % — Computer and Mathematical (1/15)
05,55 % — Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media (2/36)
05,26 % — Protective Services (1/19)
04,76 % — Life, Physical, and Social Sciences (2/42)
04,55 % — Education, Training, and Library (1/22)
03,23 % — Management (1/31)
03,13 % — Architecture and Engineering (1/32)
00,00 % — Healthcare Support (0/14)
00,00 % — Community and Social Services (0/13)

A Basic Income for everyone ?